TII Innovation Journal

Happy New Year: what are the next new technologies ?

The last minutes of 2006 we always wonder what the new year will bring. The number of the year will change to secrecy- and action-promising 007, and Romania and Bulgaria will be with us in EU, but what else will happen in 2007 ? What technologies will come and make a commercial or social impact ? Can we ever tell in advance ?

The futures research uses methods such as Delphi and technology roadmap study to try and determine what will work in the future and when. One recent Delphi-type study was reported in IEEE Spectrum in September, when 700 IEEE fellow engineers and scientists were surveyed by the Institute for the Future (www.iftf.org). The IEEE fellows were asked to forecast in the area of their own expertise whether they believed that a special technology development seemed probable, and if yes, whether the commercial breakthrough would come in the next 10 years or 10-20 years from now.

While the complete data is available at www.spectrum.ieee.org/sep06/fellowsdata, let us say that according to these recognized specialists the following technologies have a reasonable probability to really work before or around 2015:

• handwriting recognition approaches 99 % accuracy
• parallel programming will be used inm mainstream applications
• interactive computer graphics will be lifelike
• terabit optical networks for telecommunication
• Gigabit internet access will even reach the developing countries
• software-defined radio will be integrated in consumer electronics
• global videoconferencing will become routine
• desktop printable electronics will become routine
• nonvolatile data storage will eclipse magnetic media storage
• RFID will be commonly integrated to comnsumer electronics
• ...and replace EAN printed bar code technologies
• sensor networks that scavenge power will be widely used
• robust design tools for fabrication at the nanoscale will be available
• LEDs will replace incandescent light for home lighting
• fuel cells will be widely used in mobile devices
• and rapid DNA sequencing becomes affordable.

For 2020-25 or so, expect also the following:

• universal language translator will be commercially available
• computer speech recognition of unstructured human speech will approach 99 % accuracy
• 5-nanometer processors will be commercially viable
• semiconductor industry will hit the "moore's Law Wall"
• "smart dust" monitors will be widely deployed in sensor networks
• household robotics will be widely adopted
• microelectromechanic systems will be widely applied in medicine
• nanoelectromechanical systems will go commercial
• microscale robotics will become viable
• manufacturing of nanostructured materials to exact specs without machining will be commercially viable
• fuel cells will be widely used to power cars
• ..and also might just be about to reach wide use for household electricity (a bit more probable in developing countries than globally, surprisingly; shows what the "powers that be" are capable of ?)

While I wish You all a Happy New Year and Success for 2007, I also warn You - in the light of the above report - to hold Your breath waiting for..

• quantum computing
• humanoid robots to care for elderly in homes
• self-driving cars
• "Theory of Everything"
• cold fusion
• living organisms on other planets
• practically usable (for evacuation purposes) prediction of earthquakes
• room-temperature superconductors
• molecular self-assembly of integrated circuits
• commercially viable fusion reactors
• photovoltaics with 50 % efficiency
• telemedicine taking over for majority of medical diagnosis

Happy new year !!!!

The Helsinki Manifesto

The conference "Networked Business and Government", attended by over 300 research, technology and innovation policy specialists from the EU countries, worried about the status of the implementation Lisbon Strategy, gave out a "Helsinki Manifesto". They say that "in order to improve its global competitive position, Europe needs immediate and strong measures to boost its economic growth through productivity and innovation for job creation in 2007-2013. There is also a nurgent need for institutional, structural and financial changes at Eu, national and regional level to facilitate focused and  innovation-based growth for Europe's global competitiveness". For the implementation of this Manifesto, the actors gathered in Helsinki for the two-day conference have recognized the following priorities:

1. Opening EU-wide procurement of R&D innovation within public services

In Europe the public sector is relativelt bigger than in the U.S. or in Asia. Thus, "the public sector should use its procurement power to leverage innovation and drive the take-up of research into innovative products and services". According to the group, this would require a reallocation of about 2.5 % of the public procurement spending to R&D for innovation.

2. Creation of EU-wide standardized and harmonized banking services

While workable technologies and business models already exist, and despite the statements of the European Commission and the European central Bank of May 2006, there's still big productivity gains to be had from enhanced EU-wide standardization and harmonization in the areas of new better business processes, electronic banking, and financial market operations within the Europe.

3. European network of Living Labs

Living Labs are thought to act as test beds for emerging knowledge intensive services, businesses, markets, technologies or even industries for jobs and growth can be developed, tested and validated. The first phase - already under planning - will consist of 20 such "labs" in 15 member countries.

4. Increasing interoperability and creating EU-wide standards for eServices

The conference also noted that it is "vital to implement existing best practices for public services and SMEs." As an example, the conference noted the authentication services used in banking in Finland and Estonia, and also promoted the possibilities the open standards would offer for innovation.

5. Setting up a strategic task force for the presidencies 2007-2008

The German, Portuguese and Slovenian presidencies would have to promote the innovativeness of Europe even further during their time in the lead. In the Helsinki meeting, a strong-attendance Slovenian team at least gave full support to this idea.

6. A horizontal programme within the 7th framework programme for knowledge-intensive service society development

While the conference agreed that the 7th framework in general was "a move to the right direction", they also felt that a horizontal research programme for knowledge intensive society development would be in order. This programme should cover "the required services, business, and related open technological architecture development, and consequent institutional and structural changes" and be ready for implementation from early 2008.

7. Enabling working environment

The Conference finally stated that the "member states should accelerate their efforts to remove the still-remaining barriers and obstacles" for the ICT uptake across Europe, whether of legal, administrative, economic, or technical nature.

Even if all these objectives in general feel and sound like I couldn't agree more, they also leave a lot of practical value unsaid. I, for one, still do not really see what new value for competitiveness of Europe the Living Labs would provide, nor how (see www.tietoyhteiskuntaohjelma.fi/ajankohtaista/events/en_GB/1147340579176/   for details), and also most of the other points in the Manifesto feel like I would have heard them before. Thus, personally, I agree that the major point here must be point number five: if Europe can get four or five consecutive presidencies to keep the innovativeness item on top of all possible issues they want to be forwarded, then there's still hope. And, as a final point of lighter nature (but, to my opinion, also somewhat telling about the situation of innovation in Europe), a joke I overheard: "What's the definition of 'innovation'? Why, it's 'lnvention' after administration has taken over". Too many organizations and policies, and not enough ideas.

(Press conference in Espoo, 20.11.2006)

Technology Review: Engineered Microbes Boost Ethanol

Technology Review: Engineered Microbes Boost Ethanol: " THIS IS A CLASSICAL PURSUIT -extremely important to create INNOVATION IN FARMING- ONE OF MY FAVOURITE TOPICS. [1] 2 Next » Friday, December 08, 2006 Engineered Microbes Boost Ethanol Yeast that tolerates more ethanol than usual could bring down the cost of making the renewable fuel. By Prachi Patel-Predd Researchers at MIT have created a new strain of yeast that tolerates high levels of ethanol and ferments sugars more efficiently, making more ethanol and doing it faster. The advance could lead to smaller, cheaper ethanol manufacturing plants, as well as reduce the notoriously high amounts of energy needed to make ethanol. The result, described in the current issue of Science, is also an important advance in the wider effort to make organisms that can convert cheap biomass, such as corn leaves and stalks, agricultural waste, and fast-growing plants including willow and switchgrass, into ethanol. Ethanol from such sour"

(Via .)

Resource Guide: SSTI publishes new report

SSTI, the State Science Technology Institute in the US, a kind of "sister organization" of TII (but with more information distribution than networking and less business membership than TII), publishes interesting reports. Lately SSTI published its Resource Guide (download from their site) I have taken an excerpt of the introduction (read below) The report has an interesting Commercialization Roadmap, which is good to give an overview/checklist about the many processes and expressions used involved in "Commercialization" (for those who like Tabular knowledge ;-)

Introduction ... Technology-based economic development is the approach used to help create a climate where that new economic base can thrive. Based on the experience of tech-based economies like Silicon Valley, Research Triangle, and Route 128, it is generally acknowledged now that the following elements are required for a tech-based economy:

•An intellectual infrastructure, i.e. universities and public or private research laboratories that generate new knowledge and discoveries
•Mechanisms for transferring knowledge from one individual to another or from one company to another
•Physical infrastructure that includes high quality telecommunications systems and affordable high speed Internet connections
•Highly skilled technical workforce
•Sources of risk capital
•Quality of life, and
•Entrepreneurial culture

This resource guide focuses on three of the elements – intellectual infrastructure, capital, and entrepreneurial culture – and is intended to assist economic development practitioners in their efforts to accelerate transition to technology based economies. ....

Practitioners can use the guide to implement and update programs addressing these three critical elements required for a tech-based economy. The guide also begins to resolve one of the most challenging issues for the tech-based economic development community: the paucity of written information that captures the insights, wisdom and practical knowledge of people who have decades of experience in the field.

The report caught my attention for another reason: its reference to PriceWaterhouseCoopers and their MoneyTreeReports.

The MoneyTree Report is a quarterly study of venture capital investment activity in the United States. As a collaboration between PricewaterhouseCoopers and the National Venture Capital Association based upon data from Thomson Financial, it is the only industry-endorsed research of its kind. The MoneyTree Report is the definitive source of information on emerging companies that receive financing and the venture capital firms that provide it. The study is a staple of the financial community, entrepreneurs, government policymakers and the business press worldwide.

The interesting point here is the overall drop in venture capital investment since the "Bubble" burst in around 2000 and the trend to see business angels consolidate their activity to move downstream in the funding pipeline, ie. investing larger sums than usual. But it's also evident that the US now also realizes a widening gap between early stage and VC funding.