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  • Ernst Max Nielsen
    Max has worked 20+ years with TT as owner, manager, director and /or board member in both small and large companies, comprising TT consulting, high-tech startups, international groups – in USA, Russia, UK, Belgium, Hungary and his native Denmark. Max operates as a business angel investor.

Carbon nanotube: now clearly stronger than the rest

It works in the lab, it is often said of new technologies. Now some individual strands of the carbon nano tube fiber material have clearly outperformed in strength the strongest currently commercially available fibers, according to the MIT Technology Review Monday Nov. 19 web update.

Alan Windle, a professor of materials science at the University of Cambridge, in England, made and tested the new nanotube fibers along with researchers at the Natick Soldier Research Development Center, in Massachusetts. In his methodology there is still a clear manufacturing variation; the weakest of the fibers only about averaged the strength of steel, while it seems the average strength of the fibers made with this method was about similar to "materials used in bullet-proof vests, such as Kevlar. These nanotube fibers matched the highest reported strengths for a couple of the strongest commercially available fibers, Zylon and Dyneema, also used in bullet-proof vests". The lone really strong fiber  endured about 150 % of the strength of these, nine gigapascals of stress -far beyond any other reported material - before breaking.

In a video caption that follows the information from TR, the manufacturing method indeed looks as if the fiber would be very uneven in thickness and eventually also quality; thus also the usable pieces of the fiber are relatively short. If the manufacturing variation can be brought down and close to the upper end of the spectrum, this promises for an extremely lightweight (fiber wall thickness is that of just one layer of atoms!) and durable material with possible applications ranging "from body armor to oil drilling". I'd personally like to have a motorbiking helmet that would be lighter on my aging neck in highway speeds.

Telepathy does exist

The search for suitable brain-computer interfaces for artificial limbs and prostheses has brought some interesting prototypes that seem to be able to do some telepathy too. In human-to-human communication, speech and other conscious communicative actions are central, but in brain-computer interfaces the communication is based on recognition of electronic currencies in the brain. The electronic currencies are similar in conscious and unconscious brain action, so actually the new methods read thoughts that humans themselves do not know do exist.

Two examples are reported in recent IEEE Computer journal (Vol. 40 No. 1). Firstly, researchers at Stanford university are basing their limb prosthesis improvement on the unconscious "plans" that the brain makes before actually directing the body to move in a certain way. This neural planning activity will utilized for calculating mathematical estimations of how e.g. a prosthetic arm should move and actually base the movement of the arm on the "plan", not on the actual command from the brain to the arm. This way the arm should land on the correct spot with more accuracy, but could in future be used for guiding industrial or other robotics on brain activity alone, or to let machines take over from pilots and drivers when the situation overloads their capacities.

Secondly, the LIINC lab at Columbia University is studying how brain can recognize pictures before the human consciousness really notices actively what has happened. Their Cortically Coupled Computer Vision system is connected to the brain and utilizes its ability to recognize novel, unusual, interesting or rare elements in images more quickly than humans can identify them. In plain words, the devise connects to the human brain through a EEG cap to measure the electrrical signals of neuron groups of the brain. This locational information from within the brain is then used to recognize images in which the viewer has seen something novel or rare, and ranks them in order of importance based on electrical current strength. This innovation is planned for improvements of computer vision systems, but could be used in analysing marketing, closed-cirquit camera pictures, or whatever - to my opinion, even including analysing somebody's thoughts and dreams.

The bad news (or good news, depending on the viewpoint) for this research is the current high cost and clumsiness of BC interface systems. The machinery involved is currently big, and there must be technicians present to make them work.  Thus the technologies are mostly used in tests and it will take a long time before a widespread medical or other commercial use is envisioned.


Happy New Year: what are the next new technologies ?

The last minutes of 2006 we always wonder what the new year will bring. The number of the year will change to secrecy- and action-promising 007, and Romania and Bulgaria will be with us in EU, but what else will happen in 2007 ? What technologies will come and make a commercial or social impact ? Can we ever tell in advance ?

The futures research uses methods such as Delphi and technology roadmap study to try and determine what will work in the future and when. One recent Delphi-type study was reported in IEEE Spectrum in September, when 700 IEEE fellow engineers and scientists were surveyed by the Institute for the Future (www.iftf.org). The IEEE fellows were asked to forecast in the area of their own expertise whether they believed that a special technology development seemed probable, and if yes, whether the commercial breakthrough would come in the next 10 years or 10-20 years from now.

While the complete data is available at www.spectrum.ieee.org/sep06/fellowsdata, let us say that according to these recognized specialists the following technologies have a reasonable probability to really work before or around 2015:

  • handwriting recognition approaches 99 % accuracy
  • parallel programming will be used inm mainstream applications
  • interactive computer graphics will be lifelike
  • terabit optical networks for telecommunication
  • Gigabit internet access will even reach the developing countries
  • software-defined radio will be integrated in consumer electronics
  • global videoconferencing will become routine
  • desktop printable electronics will become routine
  • nonvolatile data storage will eclipse magnetic media storage
  • RFID will be commonly integrated to comnsumer electronics
  • ...and replace EAN printed bar code technologies
  • sensor networks that scavenge power will be widely used
  • robust design tools for fabrication at the nanoscale will be available
  • LEDs will replace incandescent light for home lighting
  • fuel cells will be widely used in mobile devices
  • and rapid DNA sequencing becomes affordable.

For 2020-25 or so, expect also the following:

  • universal language translator will be commercially available
  • computer speech recognition of unstructured human speech will approach 99 % accuracy
  • 5-nanometer processors will be commercially viable
  • semiconductor industry will hit the "moore's Law Wall"
  • "smart dust" monitors will be widely deployed in sensor networks
  • household robotics will be widely adopted
  • microelectromechanic systems will be widely applied in medicine
  • nanoelectromechanical systems will go commercial
  • microscale robotics will become viable
  • manufacturing of nanostructured materials to exact specs without machining will be commercially viable
  • fuel cells will be widely used to power cars
  • ..and also might just be about to reach wide use for household electricity (a bit more probable in developing countries than globally, surprisingly; shows what the "powers that be" are capable of ?)

While I wish You all a Happy New Year and Success for 2007, I also warn You - in the light of the above report - to hold Your breath waiting for..

  • quantum computing
  • humanoid robots to care for elderly in homes
  • self-driving cars
  • "Theory of Everything"
  • cold fusion
  • living organisms on other planets
  • practically usable (for evacuation purposes) prediction of earthquakes
  • room-temperature superconductors
  • molecular self-assembly of integrated circuits
  • commercially viable fusion reactors
  • photovoltaics with 50 % efficiency
  • telemedicine taking over for majority of medical diagnosis

Happy new year !!!!

Energy getting cheaper ?

The world electrical energy consumption during 2004 was something like 15.400 billion kilowatthours (about 15 terawatt-hours in more technical-sounding terms). If a typical household lightbulb could be 60 watts, this would mean burning about 250 thousand billion of them during one hour, or, for the world's six-odd billion inhabitants, one lightbulb per person about 42.700 hours. Because a year is only about 8600 hours, this would mean that every individual on the earth would keep five bulbs lit all through the year, 24-7, winter,s ummer, spring and fall. Yes, and that was 2004 - we use more now. (And yes, somthing like that is our way of using the electricity - after all, there's lots of it anyway).

After the greenhouse gas problems and related taxation, the unrests in some Arab countries, the dry summers of Europe, and the increase of energy use by the Chinese (and everybody of us others), and many other reasons, the price of electrical energy is on the rise. Despite the managers of big energy companies saying that there's still far to go until the new energy forms start to be competitive to their costs, they are getting more and more interesting practically by the hour, no matter if their production cost is higher.

Some of the more interesting new solutions are based on hydrogen, not only because it can with great certainty be said that the world will never run out of hydrogen. The good news of course also is that hydrogen can be easily stored (for the moments when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow), transported and used in a wide array of different uses, including mobile equipment such as cars, trains, boats - even airplanes and mobile phones. But hydrogen must be separated from the complex chemical molecules it is bound in - most typically out of water H2O. To separate each two hydrogen atom from the oxygen atom that are bound in water molecules, electricity is currently being used. this is at the moment expensive - because electricity is expensive, and because the equipment is expensive.

Lately, there has been a steady flow of relatively small new technological breakthroughs that actually may make alternative energy a lot cheaper: instead of just increasing performance, many researchers are concentrating to lower the costs.  Both Altran foundation awards, for example, went in June 2006 to inventions that lower the cost of manufacturing renewable energy equipment. The grand price went to Dutch Maxxun project and to Mr. Rudy van der Blom for groundbreaking new solar cell technology that actually is said to halve the investments required for solar energy systems, and, as a result, take the cost of solar energy down by a factor of two. Solar energy solutions might then be practical and economical even for individual small houses. A fluorescent layer between a plastic sheet and the solar cell, diminishing the reflections of sunlight and allowing a cell to reach up to 95 % efficiency. This allows for less and smaller cells, again meaning less of the expensive materials needed per a certain energy production rate. What is maybe even better, the new type of cell is said to look better on a roof.

Simultaneously, the American company Konarka is starting to produce in small scale another new type of solar cell based on inventions by professor Michael Grätzel of Ecole Polytechnique Lausanne, Switzerland. refusing the idea of expensive pure silicon-based cells, to both absorb the light and to transfer the electricity. The new innovation uses a dye to absorb the light, and nanoparticles below it that resemble the chlorophyll of nature to transfer the electrons. This means that instead of a "cell" the new photocell actually looks like coloured glass or plastic sheet, and can be used in the same way - e.g. in windows, roof covering, facade material, clothing, tents, maybe even sails of boats and wing material of airplanes. This new material is less efficient than the traditional silicon cells, but only about 20 per cent less; the cost instead is about 20 per cent of that of the silicon-based cells. And new reserach in the same area promises even more.

The special award of Altran foundation was this year presented to Pierre Forté of PragmaPac (France) for several innovations on reducing the costs of the hydrogen cells. The manufacturing costs, size and weight of the typical hydrogen cell has slowed the diffusion rate of this technology down. Pragma has replaced many oif the inner components of fuel cells by cheaper, lighter and smaller materials and also changed the geometrical concept so that it would be more suitable for automated production. There's no free lunch it is said, but the new material used in the gas diffusion layers is also said to allow narly double teh electric conductivity of the current solutions. Meanwhile, MIT:s bi-monthly magazine Technology Review reports on MIT researchers having been able to replace many of the rest of the parts in a hydrogen generator by composites such as fibreglass, that again should reduce the cost of these bigger parts by abouth half. All boat and tank manufacturers could easily take the step to the energy sector by benefiting from this development, again lowering the cost through learning and competition.

So, the manufacturing costs are coming down (albeit slowly; the first of these innovations are just being test-producted, most are said to be in the market in 5-6 years). This wouldn't be such ineteresting news if it wasn't for the rapidly-accelerating development that adding all these - and many more - new inventions up. Our own studies show that coming up to a good level of performance (e.g. in digital photography) does not cause the demand from the markets to grow significantly, but getting the good performance down to reasonable "mass-market" level of cost does.  If a good energy-producing unit for one household can be produded for about the same price than a mass-market jacuzzi, the decision for a family is not impossible to make any more... and it can be what is needed so that the energy markets tip off.

NSTI Nanotech Ventures 2006 Is Now Accepting Submissions

NSTI Nanotech Ventures 2006 Is Now Accepting Submissions: "Deadline for ‘seed’ to ‘early stage’ company submissions is Friday, March 10.

The NSTI Nanotech Ventures will take place May 8-9, 2006, at the Hynes Convention Center in Boston, Massachusetts.  Nanotech Ventures is considered an ideal forum for 'seed' to 'early-stage' companies to showcase their technologies, market advantages, and to search for funding.  Selected companies give 15-minute presentations to the audience, and benefit from on-site networking with the NSTI Nanotech Ventures Vetting Team, corporate capital, venture capital and multi-sector investment attendees.  The Nanotech Ventures Vetting Team includes IBM, Harris & Harris, UBS, and Garage Ventures.  To submit a venture, visit http://www.nsti.org/Nanotech2006/Development/ventures.html

"

(Via NSTI Nano World News™.)

Innovation smackdown: MIT vs. Harvard; From Innovationinsider

Innovation smackdown: MIT vs. Harvard: "

Smackdown wrestlers.jpg

For any MBA graduate or long-time business practitioner, the Harvard Business Review is often considered the touchstone of business excellence. By comparison, the MIT Sloan Management Review languishes in relative obscurity, eclipsed by its better-known sister publication, the MIT Technology Review. While doing a routine 'business innovation' search on Yahoo!, I noticed that both the Harvard Business Review and the MIT Sloan Management Review were purchasing sponsored search links, so I thought it might be interesting to see how the two publications stack up in terms of business innovation articles, especially since MIT and Harvard are blood rivals capable of some mean-spirited pranks located just across the river from each other in Cambridge. If this were a Friday night WWE Smackdown and these two schools were professional wrestlers, can you imagine the mayhem that would result by putting the Harvard Business Review and the MIT Sloan Management Review in the same ring together?

Somewhat surprisingly, the quality and depth of the business innovation thinking in the MIT publication surpassed that of the Harvard publication...

Business innovation articles in the current issue of the MIT Sloan Management Review: (1) Improving capabilities through industry peer neworks (2) Capturing the real value of innovation tools (3) Creating new markets through service innovation and (4) Reducing the risks of new product development.

Business innovation articles in the current issue of the Harvard Business Review: (1) The Why, What and How of Management Innovation by Gary Hamel and (2) Breakthrough Ideas for 2006.

The winner of this innovation smackdown by an easy margin: The MIT Sloan Management Review.

Tags:      

[image: World Wrestling Entertainment: SmackDown]

"

(Via Business Innovation 2005.)

Innovation Everywhere—How the Acceleration of “GNR” (genetics, nanotechnology, robotics) Will Create a Flat and Equitable World

Innovation Everywhere—How the Acceleration of “GNR” (genetics, nanotechnology, robotics) Will Create a Flat and Equitable World: "Raymond Kurzweil

Ray Kurzweil may be the closest thing we have to a crystal ball. And if anyone has the right to some credibility in the prognostication arena, this overachieving inventor can.  With crackling speed, Kurzweil powerpoints through charts illustrating the growth of various technologies over the centuries.  His main points:  technology evolves exponentially; the rate of technical progress itself is accelerating, so expect to ‘see 20,000 years of progress in the 21st century, about 1000 times greater than the 20th century.’  Before you can say, ‘Hold your horses,’ Kurzweil is off and running.

Say goodbye to cancer and heart disease within 15 years, and hello to living way past 80. And try to survive until the year 2029, which according to Kurzweil’s mathematical models, represents ‘25 turns of the screw in terms of doubling the power of information technology in every aspect of our lives.’  We’ll see reverse engineering of the human brain, and computers that ‘will combine the subtlety and pattern recognition of human intelligence with the speed, memory and knowledge sharing of machine intelligence.’   The marriage of nanotechnology and AI will bring us ‘a killer app’-- nanobots that can keep us healthy from the inside.  These will also enable ‘full immersion virtual reality from within nervous systems’ and expand human intelligence, facilitating ‘brain to brain communication.   As for human conflict, Kurzweil sees an end to starvation and energy concerns, but doesn’t quite complete his utopia.    New technologies may be used in anti-social ways, say, by a bioterrorist.  ‘I’m less optimistic we can avoid all painful issues; we certainly did not do that in the 20th century,’ concludes Kurzweil. --   [September 29, 2005  3:30 PM]"

(Via MIT World » Recent Updates.)

People's Daily Online -- What are China's new "four great inventions"?

People's Daily Online -- What are China's new "four great inventions"?: "     The four great inventions - papermaking, printing, gunpowder and compass - were achievements in ancient China. Are there new 'four great inventions' in contemporary China? Experts have recently put forward their 'four new great inventions', wishing genuine"
Wu's Method, a computerized method for geometrical theorem proving
Yuan's hybrid rice
Synthesized crystalline bovine insulin
The land facies oil-forming theor

(Via .)

Growing conflict over nanotech intellectual property

Growing conflict over nanotech intellectual property: "

An article in InformationWeek, while focused primarily on information technology, has lessons for nanotech as well (emphasis added):

‘U.S. universities need to recognize they’re in a global showdown for research dollars. But sometimes they’re their own worst enemies in landing such funding. The culprit: The conflict over who gets the right to collect royalties on patents resulting from vendor-sponsored university research.

‘Non-U.S. university researchers generally are more interested in the grant cash, so reaching agreements with foreign academic researchers takes at most a few weeks. HP recently took two years to reach an agreement to fund nanotechnology research at UCLA, says Wayne Johnson, VP of worldwide university relations at HP… ‘It’s a difficult topic, because there’s a belief that there’s money in this for the licensee,’ Johnson says. ‘But the corporations typically aren’t even sure there will be intellectual property. So the end product of this is tremendous delays…’ ’

‘The stumbling block isn’t always royalties. Vendor lawyers often don’t want university researchers to share the knowledge from industry-backed research in academic journals and forums. That conflicts with universities’ spread-the-knowledge mission–and academics’ publish-or-perish career paths.’ [Credit: Meridian]

Folks, this is a mess and it’s only going to get worse unless action is taken.  Please let me know if you’d like Foresight to take on this issue, and whether/how you can help.  —Christine

"

(Via Nanodot: Nanotechnology News and Discussion.)