Happy New Year: what are the next new technologies ?

The last minutes of 2006 we always wonder what the new year will bring. The number of the year will change to secrecy- and action-promising 007, and Romania and Bulgaria will be with us in EU, but what else will happen in 2007 ? What technologies will come and make a commercial or social impact ? Can we ever tell in advance ?

The futures research uses methods such as Delphi and technology roadmap study to try and determine what will work in the future and when. One recent Delphi-type study was reported in IEEE Spectrum in September, when 700 IEEE fellow engineers and scientists were surveyed by the Institute for the Future (www.iftf.org). The IEEE fellows were asked to forecast in the area of their own expertise whether they believed that a special technology development seemed probable, and if yes, whether the commercial breakthrough would come in the next 10 years or 10-20 years from now.

While the complete data is available at www.spectrum.ieee.org/sep06/fellowsdata, let us say that according to these recognized specialists the following technologies have a reasonable probability to really work before or around 2015:

• handwriting recognition approaches 99 % accuracy
• parallel programming will be used inm mainstream applications
• interactive computer graphics will be lifelike
• terabit optical networks for telecommunication
• Gigabit internet access will even reach the developing countries
• software-defined radio will be integrated in consumer electronics
• global videoconferencing will become routine
• desktop printable electronics will become routine
• nonvolatile data storage will eclipse magnetic media storage
• RFID will be commonly integrated to comnsumer electronics
• ...and replace EAN printed bar code technologies
• sensor networks that scavenge power will be widely used
• robust design tools for fabrication at the nanoscale will be available
• LEDs will replace incandescent light for home lighting
• fuel cells will be widely used in mobile devices
• and rapid DNA sequencing becomes affordable.

For 2020-25 or so, expect also the following:

• universal language translator will be commercially available
• computer speech recognition of unstructured human speech will approach 99 % accuracy
• 5-nanometer processors will be commercially viable
• semiconductor industry will hit the "moore's Law Wall"
• "smart dust" monitors will be widely deployed in sensor networks
• household robotics will be widely adopted
• microelectromechanic systems will be widely applied in medicine
• nanoelectromechanical systems will go commercial
• microscale robotics will become viable
• manufacturing of nanostructured materials to exact specs without machining will be commercially viable
• fuel cells will be widely used to power cars
• ..and also might just be about to reach wide use for household electricity (a bit more probable in developing countries than globally, surprisingly; shows what the "powers that be" are capable of ?)

While I wish You all a Happy New Year and Success for 2007, I also warn You - in the light of the above report - to hold Your breath waiting for..

• quantum computing
• humanoid robots to care for elderly in homes
• self-driving cars
• "Theory of Everything"
• cold fusion
• living organisms on other planets
• practically usable (for evacuation purposes) prediction of earthquakes
• room-temperature superconductors
• molecular self-assembly of integrated circuits
• commercially viable fusion reactors
• photovoltaics with 50 % efficiency
• telemedicine taking over for majority of medical diagnosis

Happy new year !!!!

Comments

[michael jones]

Thank you for the great information about the optical solutions! It is just great! I will use it for my new research!

[Tauno Kekale]

I know this comes awfully late (three months after David's notion, and 11 months after the original posting), but I want to apologize to IEEE Fellows for the small letter. Just shows that my cultural understanding can still be improved.

Tauno

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[Kim]

Good forecast data into 2015 and 2020-2025. The quantum computer would be interesting to see if I am still around.

[David Scott Lewis]

It's "IEEE Fellows," NOT "IEEE fellows" -- like they're friends or something. It's a designation within IEEE. But glad you posted the forecasts.