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  • Ernst Max Nielsen
    Max has worked 20+ years with TT as owner, manager, director and /or board member in both small and large companies, comprising TT consulting, high-tech startups, international groups – in USA, Russia, UK, Belgium, Hungary and his native Denmark. Max operates as a business angel investor.

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Max

I wonder what the model does to "radical innovation" or breakthrough inventions? Examples could be new drugs based on chiral compounds, with a limited history in any company but with a great predicted future (estimates say 200+ billion $ market). Or what about photonics, the expected paradigm to replace semi-conductors/electronics?

I tested the method by asking the predicted value of one of Merck´s chiral compounds, which the model predicted to be worth less than 200k$ over 17 years (market size expected to around the double!). The compound in question is probably the base for a series of anti-viral drugs, which form a critical mass of Merck's market.

Why the error (in my analysis, mind you)? I believe, like I wrote in another comment on this site) that the one thing we know about the future in business is that it is not going to be like the past - and these models make that assumption. Many analysts have shown that markets, and indeed companies, are redefined every 5-6 years - that's the lifetime of a company!! (sure, it may keep the same name, but markets, technologies, products etc change).

Follow a side of this discussion at http://agelessmarketing.typepad.com/ageless_marketing/2005/04/who_will_turn_o.html

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